The Battle for the White House: Nate Silver's Crystal Ball Predicts a Nail-Biting Finish

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Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowly edged ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest polling forecasts, but the race for the White House remains a statistical tie.

According to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight's final presidential forecasts, Harris has a 50% chance of winning, compared to Trump's 49%. However, many national and swing state polls remain essentially tied.

Harris's lead has decreased over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August. She currently leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

The vice president has a larger four-point lead (51%-47%) in both a new PBS News/NPR/Marist survey and a 50,000-person poll by the Cooperative Election Study.

Harris erased Trump's lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, but her edge has decreased over the past two months.

That means Harris would win the electoral college if every swing state's polling is completely accurate, but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate.

Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data and found that Harris had a 50.015% chance of winning compared to Trump's 49.985%—effectively a tie.